As the 2027 presidential race gradually takes shape, fresh political maneuvers have emerged with increasing calls for former President Goodluck Jonathan to make a dramatic return to Aso Rock.
While the idea sparks nostalgia among some, insiders and analysts agree it is driven more by strategic power calculations than sentiment.
Why Jonathan?
The push for Jonathan’s candidacy, particularly from influential northern quarters,rests on three major factors:
Single-Term Advantage: Constitutionally, Jonathan can only serve one more term, giving northern politicians a shorter route to reclaiming power in 2031.
Perceived Neutrality: His conciliatory leadership style between 2010 and 2015, and his peaceful concession after losing the 2015 election, have earned him a reputation for national unity.
Electoral Disruption: His entry could split the southern vote and mount a serious challenge to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election bid, especially in swing states.
Who Stands to Gain?
Northern Power Brokers: Strategic positioning for a smooth political takeover in 2031.
PDP and Allied Opposition: An opportunity to rally behind a nationally recognized figure capable of mobilizing support across regional divides.
New Political Coalitions: Jonathan’s candidacy could unite APC defectors, PDP loyalists, and emerging political blocs under a single banner.
Risks and Complications
Mixed Legacy: While praised for democratic conduct, Jonathan’s administration faced criticism over insecurity and corruption, which opponents are sure to exploit.
Party Politics: The PDP has yet to officially endorse him, and internal rivals may resist his comeback.
Public Sentiment: Many Nigerians may view his return as recycling old leadership rather than promoting fresh ideas.
Will Jonathan Run?
So far, Jonathan has made no clear commitment. His ongoing peace missions, ECOWAS assignments, and diplomatic engagements could either boost his image as a statesman or signal disinterest in Nigeria’s turbulent political arena.
If he does decide to run, it will likely be after assessing the political terrain in late 2026 or early 2027.
Possible 2027 Scenarios
Scenario A: Jonathan accepts, opposition forces consolidate, and the election becomes a fierce, possibly two-round contest.
Scenario B: He declines, forcing the PDP and others to scramble for a strong alternative—risking fragmentation.
Scenario C: Jonathan emerges under an APC faction—unlikely, but capable of completely redrawing Nigeria’s political map.
Bottom Line:
The calls for Jonathan’s return are rooted in raw political arithmetic, not mere nostalgia. Whether he re-enters the race will depend on his reading of the national mood, his legacy calculations, and the shifting alliances ahead of 2027.
